EWEA launched its second “Pure Power” report. The report, contains a multitude of figures about wind energy development in the EU Member States as well as new scenarios for 2020 and 2030. The aim of this prognoses is to provide national governments with some guidance on wind power’s contribution to meeting their binding national targets.Authors of the report consider onshore wind as the cheapest of the renewable electricity technologies, which will be the largest contributor to meeting the 34% share of renewable electricity needed by 2020 in the EU, as envisaged by the 2009 Directive. As a consequence of the adoption of the Directive, the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), in March 2009, increased its 2020 target from 180 GW to 230 GW, including 40 GW of offshore wind power. With this report, EWEA is now increasing its 2030 target from 300 GW to 400 GW. Authors of the study believes that If we are thinking to meet the demanding goals we must stop thinking of electrical grids as national infrastructure and start developing them - onshore and offshore - to become European corridors of electricity trade. The faster they are developed, the faster we will have a domestic substitute if future fuel import supplies are disrupted or the cost of fuel becomes prohibitively expensive, as the world experienced during 2008.
Report provides the results of this analysis in the form of two 2020 scenarios for each national market: a “low” scenario and a “high” scenario. The “low” scenario is based on EWEA’s traditionally conservative approach to setting future targets for wind energy. It assumes a total installed capacity of wind energy in the EU by 2020 of 230 GW, producing 580 TWh of electricity.
The “high” scenario acknowledges that wind power – as the most affordable of the renewable electricity technologies – is likely to meet a much higher share of the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive target than the 12% of electricity demand by 2020 indicated by the European Commission. For many of the countries, the “high” scenario also takes into account wind power targets already announced by national governments. In the “high” scenario, total installed wind power capacity will reach 265 GW by 2020, producing 681 TWh of electricity.
Case of Poland
According to “low” scenario Wind energy development in Poland until 2020 is estimated for 10,500 MW what means average annual growth of 836 MW installed capacity and production of 25,4 TWh which means 12,5 % share of final domestic electricity consumption.
According to “high” scenario Wind energy development in Poland until 2020 is estimated for 12,500 MW what means average annual growth of 1,002 MW installed capacity and production of 30,1 TWh which means 14,8 % share of final domestic electricity consumption.
Final Electricity Consumption in 2020 for Poland (for both scenarios) was calculated for 203,7 TWh.
The key information and scenarios of members counties
Source: EWEA “Pure Power” 2009
Authors of the report consider Poland as the most attractive of the Eastern markets because of state support, good wind conditions and the availability of land. Poland was placed in the same group of countries with France and Italy – states where the average MW that need to be installed annually until 2020 (“high” scenario) is higher than 1000MW and lower than 2000MW.
See full report (open)
Source: EWEA “Pure Power” 2009
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