The latest data demonstrate that without wind energy, our electricity bills would have been substantially higher. In December 2021 — the most expensive month in years — the average wholesale electricity price reached 823 PLN/MWh, with 7 GW of onshore wind. Without electricity produced from wind the December price would have been twice as high (1,642 PLN/MWh), meaning that onshore wind allowed Polish citizens to cut their electricity bills by half — these are the conclusions from an analysis prepared by the Polskie Stowarzyszenie Energetyki Wiatrowej and Instytut Jagielloński. At the same time, the President of the ERO dispels all illusions and announces that electricity prices will once again substantially increase next year — by as much as 50%. If we do not unblock onshore wind development, instead of producing clean and inexpensive electricity wind will roam freely only in empty pockets of Polish citizens.
Electricity prices are skyrocketing, and nothing but further increases are to be expected soon — everything because the development of the least expensive source of electricity, onshore wind, is blocked. Polish customers already suffered higher electricity bills, and the future does not look bright. The President of the ERO, quoted by the Polish Press Agency, claimed the market situation “unprecedented” and, considering the prices of electricity that has been sold until early April 2022, said that the tariff for electricity (without distribution costs) may increase by 50 percent.
Could it be less? Yes, but this is last call to unblock onshore wind — a technology much less expensive than thermal sources operated in Poland (hard coal, lignite, natural gas), whose costs soar in the face of the increase in fuel and CO2 emission allowance costs. The analysis carried out by PWEA and IJ — “Onshore wind and wholesale electricity prices on the spot market in Poland” — demonstrates that production of electricity from onshore wind farms has a substantial impact on the decrease of average wholesale electricity prices in Poland. Data for January–March 2022 clearly demonstrate that higher share of onshore wind farm in the satisfaction of domestic demand for electricity translates into lower spot market prices.
December 2021 was a month with the highest average prices in all 2021. At the same time, December demonstrated a strong correlation between onshore wind production and spot prices. In the entire 2021 the average yearly spot electricity price amounted to 398 PLN/MWh. As of December 2021, onshore wind installed capacity in Poland reached 7 GW. Depending on the capacity level assumed in the analysis, a simulation of the impact of onshore wind on spot electricity prices in Poland demonstrates that with 0 GW of wind installed capacity in 2021, the simulated average yearly spot price would have been higher by approximately 163 PLN/MWh. In a reverse scenario — assuming double the actual capacity, i.e. 14 GW in 2021 — the simulated average yearly spot price would have been lower by approximately 57 PLN/MWh.
“Power system in Poland is based in approximately 70 percent on coal and approximately 5 percent on gas. Today, coal and gas determine prices on the wholesale and spot markets for electricity. All other sources take part in this price-setting system, too. Renewable energy producers make attempts to reduce the price. However, we have insufficient green sources that could actually influence the prices. Therefore, the government should introduce solutions streamlining investments in renewable energy sources, which in principle decrease wholesale electricity prices. Without liberalisation of the 10 h Act, which will unblock onshore wind development, we cannot help Polish citizens to decrease their electricity bills,” explains Janusz Gajowiecki, President of the Polish Wind Energy Association.
“Power system in Poland is based in approximately 70 percent on coal and approximately 5 percent on gas. Today, coal and gas determine prices on the wholesale and spot markets for electricity. All other sources take part in this price-setting system, too. Renewable energy producers make attempts to reduce the price. However, we have insufficient green sources that could actually influence the prices. Therefore, the government should introduce solutions streamlining investments in renewable energy sources, which in principle decrease wholesale electricity prices. Without liberalisation of the 10 h Act, which will unblock onshore wind development, we cannot help Polish citizens to decrease their electricity bills,” Although draft regulations are ready for two years now, solutions that would unblock onshore wind are still missing. The draft amendment to the Wind Energy Investments Act (the so-called 10 h Distance Act) should be submitted to the Sejm by June, Deputy Minister for Climate and Environment, Ireneusz Zyska, announced. In his opinion, the draft will be subject to the Sejm’s works already in the next month.
The game is on — Poland exhibits a great potential, and prospective benefits are even greater. The 10 h Act may unblock onshore wind potential all over the country, resulting in as much as 10 GW of new capacity by 2030, depending on the development scenario used. Investment expenditures on new wind farms would reach up to PLN 80 billion within a decade. New capacity would also have a substantial contribution to GDP — its cumulated growth is estimated at PLN 70–133 billion by 2030. Moreover, this is an opportunity for new jobs, the number of which may increase by as much as 97 thousand over the next decade. Annual CO2 emissions could decrease by 42% in 2030 compared to 2020.
